The sub-prime market has virtually evaporated and lending guidelines have tightened significantly. Interest
rates on jumbo mortgages and loans for borrowers with unique situations are considerably higher than loans
for borrowers who have smaller mortgage balances, high credit scores, large down payments, and long,
steady job histories. There are two factors necessary for lending guidelines to loosen back up:
Housing market recovery - lending guidelines are likely to remain very tight until housing prices at
least find a bottom. This is because lenders, mortgage insurance companies and Wall Street investors
don't want to assume the risk that homeowners will walk away from their mortgage if the home
declines in value.
Clear rules and regulations - lenders and Wall Street investors today are very hesitant to be flexible in
their guidelines as long as the rules of the game are still undefined. There is a very large fear in the
marketplace among lenders that they will be faced with large legal liability if they extend loans to
people who may not be able to afford the payments at some point in the future. On July 14, 2008, the
Federal Reserve issued new guidelines that clarify the rules that lenders must follow when evaluating
a borrower's ability to repay. This was the first time since the credit crisis began in July 2007 that
lenders have clear guidance on the rules of the game. This should give lenders a larger comfort level
in creating new loan programs and becoming more flexible in their guidelines. Obviously, "flexible"
guidelines in the coming months will be defined differently than the reckless "flexible" of the past.
Regulators are also considering new rules for Wall Street financial institutions and investors, and
these rules should also help in jumpstarting the mortgage lending industry once again. Therefore,
lending guidelines will likely become more flexible sometime in 2009. As a participant in the CMPS
Institute, I have been very active in helping to shape some of the new rules by commenting on various
government proposals and participating in dialogue with Congress, the Fed, HUD and other
government agencies.